原創翻譯：失業率上升,中國經濟不容樂觀
China’s job outlook is "grim," and the global financial crisis could cause more layoffs and more labor unrest until the country’s economic stimulus package kicks in next year, the nation’s minister of human resources and social security said Thursday.
The stimulus package, unveiled earlier this month, will pump $585 billion into rebuilding communities destroyed by the May earthquake, constructing railways, housing, airports and highways, and funding other projects.
China is most concerned about the growing labor unrest, the human resources minister, Yin Weimin, said at a news conference. The increase in unrest has paralleled the increase of business and factory closings and job losses.
Yin noted that in the past two months, some businesses, mainly smaller ones, have been forced to close or suspend production.
Several hundred taxi drivers went on strike Wednesday in Chongqing, in southwestern China, after the government said it planned to put more cabs on the district’s roads, thereby increasing competition, the Gansu Daily newspaper said
And about 2,000 people rioted Monday in the impoverished northwestern province of Gansu over plans to move Longnan’s city government offices, which were damaged in the May 12 Sichuan earthquake, to a nearby county.
Residents, fearing the change would reduce their property values and threaten their livelihoods, clashed with police and looted government offices, the Gansu Daily reported.
China’s manufacturing sector, which produced 14 percent of the clothing, toys and footwear imported into the United States last year, has decelerated rapidly over the past few months, pulled down by a pair of factors.
First, the global economic slowdown and the subsequent drop in consumer spending stymied demand for discretionary goods made in China.
Second, Chinese manufacturers are battling rising labor and material costs at the same time that the yuan’s rising value versus the dollar is making Chinese exports to the United States and elsewhere more expensive.
Because of these challenges, more than 65,000 Chinese factories have gone bankrupt this year, said Lan Hailin, professor of business strategy with the South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, China.
And as overseas orders continue to shrink, he thinks the number of bankruptcies will keep rising.
The urban unemployment rate through October this year was 4 percent, lower than the government’s projection of 4.5 percent.
But Yin said Thursday the jobless numbers do not include migrant rural workers -- probably the most-affected group -- because they move so frequently. There are about 150 million migrant laborers in China, mostly in cities.
Xinhua said Yin has predicted unemployment will rise in the first quarter of 2009. After that, he said, the stimulus package and other steps China has taken to boost the financial sector should boost employment, according to Xinhua.
China hopes the growth of jobs will then cool down the protests. Until then, China is bracing for more demonstrations.
Meng Jianzhu, minister of public security, was quoted by the BBC as warning police this week to be "fully aware of the challenges brought by the global financial crisis."
He said officers should be careful about how they handle "mass incidents."
中文翻譯:
人力資源和社會保障部部長發言，中國的就業前景不容樂觀，受全球金融危機餘波，失業率不斷攀升，不過因為經濟刺激方案的影響，明年的情況可能會好轉。
本月早期頒佈的經濟刺激方案，擬投資共4萬億元到地震災區的重建工作，鐵路建設，房地產，機場和高速公路等其他基建項目。
人力資源部部長尹蔚民在新聞發佈會說道，中國政府十分關心勞動就業問題。工廠倒閉，企業關門，工人失業，這都和社會穩定息息相關。
尹強調，過去兩個月，主要是一些小企業倒閉或是停工。
甘肅日報報導，星期三在重慶，數百名計程車司機罷工，抗議政府增加計程車數量的計畫，因為這會加劇計程車行業的競爭。
星期一（11月17日），曾在5。12大地震中遭受損失的甘肅隴南發生2000餘人拆遷戶集體上訪事件。
甘肅日報報導，隴南當地居民擔心拆遷會對他們資產貶值，影響他們的生活品質。他們向政府辦公樓投擲雜物，後與員警發生了衝突。
中國製造業去年佔據美國進口百分之14的份額，其中包括衣服，玩具，鞋類，不過在過去幾個月，受到一些因素影響，製造出口下降迅速。
第一，全球經濟衰退，美國消費者消費能力下降，不能再隨意購買中國產品。
第二，第二，中國製造企業面臨勞動力成本和原材料成本上升，而人民幣兌換美
元的匯率也在上升，使得出口到美國和其他地區的產品價格上升。
華南理工大學企業戰略管理教授藍海林說，因為面臨著這些挑戰，所以今年有65000多家工廠倒閉。
考慮到海外訂單還在不斷減少，他認為工廠倒閉數還會不斷上升。
今年十月份的失業率在百分之4，比政府預期的少了0.5個百分點。
但是尹部長在星期三說到，失業人數統計中沒有包括農民工，因為他們流動頻繁，但是可能他們才是受到影響做大的群體。中國大概有1億5千萬的流動勞動力，而勞動力大部分聚集在城市。
新華社報導，尹部長預測明年一季度失業率會繼續上升，在一季度過後，經濟刺激方案的作用開始顯現，還有中國政府陸續採取的其他經濟刺激措施，失業率開始會下降。
中國希望失業率下降可以減弱抗議的聲音。不過在此之前，中國政府還要一直防備示威行動。
公安部部長孟建柱提醒公安部門要“充分意識到全球經濟危機帶來的挑戰”，此話被BBC收錄。
